EU - US SITUATION AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP's DRAMATIC INITIATIVES - AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
EU
Europe's Trump
strategy was hope – now hope is dead
Ole Ryborg, EU correspondent for Danmarks Radio in
Brussels
February 15, 2025
In four weeks,
the United States has gone from being Europe's best friend and ally to being an
economic adversary, which has also gone behind the EU countries' backs and
started talks with Putin about Ukraine.
The EU's 27
member states spend billions on their foreign services, with thousands of
diplomats scattered around the world, and the countries also spend enormous
sums on civilian and military intelligence services.
What both
foreign services and intelligence services have in common is that they must
collect information to help the countries' political leaders make the decisions
that are best for a country's security, democracy and economic well-being.
Spread over
the 27 EU countries, thousands of civil servants have worked systematically for
several years to collect and analyze information about Donald Trump and his
project, should he be re-elected as president.
Summarizing
the results of this enormous Trump analysis work, the main conclusion has been
that the American president – the head of state of the world's largest economy
and commander of the world's largest military – probably does not mean all the things he says.
The EU
countries have based their policy on the fact that they would be able to
negotiate with and persuade Donald Trump to cooperate on the economic and
military solutions that the EU countries want.
Donald Trump's
statements must, in the words of Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M), be
taken "seriously", but not "literally."
The firm
belief that Trump is not necessarily to be taken literally has led to what can
be characterized as the strategy of hope.
The EU
countries have based their policy on the fact that they would be able to
negotiate with and persuade Donald Trump to cooperate on the economic and
military solutions that the EU countries want.
The analysis
was that Donald Trump - the man who is the author of the book The Art of the
Deal - is a kind of "transactional" politician. A
"something-for-something" president who does not mean what he says,
but who simply comes up with sensational plans as a starting point for a
negotiation.
It was with
the hope that Europe's political leaders, foreign services, intelligence
services etc. considered the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President
of the United States.
Everything was
listened to - with a distinct hope that everything that was seen and heard
should not necessarily be taken literally.
But after less
than a month with Trump in the White House, it is clear that the strategy of
hope is dead.
The US
president and his administration have not shown themselves to be a friend and
ally to Europe. On the contrary, with Trump in the White House, the USA has
carried out a surprisingly long series of directly hostile actions towards EU
cooperation and several of the EU's member states:
• •
The US is
discussing a hostile takeover of control over Greenland
• •
The US is
discussing a "peace agreement" on Ukraine - behind the backs of
Ukraine and the EU countries. Where extensive concessions have been made to the
aggressor – Russia – which stands to be rewarded for having invaded a sovereign
country
• •
The US has
threatened and made the decision to impose tariffs on a number of European
goods, which will thus make it more difficult to sell in the US
The United
States has demanded that democratically adopted laws in Europe should not apply
to American companies.
• •
The USA
threatens the EU with financial punishment if the EU regulates the activities
of American tech companies in Europe.
• •
The USA has
withdrawn from international cooperation in important areas such as climate and
health and turned its back on significant parts of the established
international rules-based global cooperation. Among other things, the US
prevents the World Trade Organization, WTO, from operating effectively
• •
The USA has
attacked the International Criminal Court, the ICC, and not only has the USA
turned its back on the court. The US has also demanded that all US NATO allies
do the same.
• •
The US has
undermined the NATO alliance. The US still says it supports Nato. But in
practice, the United States also questions whether American military aid will
be automatic and unconditional if a European NATO country is subjected to an
attack. And thus the USA has in practice undermined the entire basis for the
entire Nato cooperation - namely the so-called oath of musketeers, which says
that an attack on one country is an attack on all. The US has – in the US
Secretary of Defense's own words – different security priorities than Europe.
All this after
just four weeks with Donald Trump in power in the White House.
Trade war on the way
To the
untrained eye, the course of Trump threats of tariffs being made – then
implementation delayed while some kind of negotiation takes place – may look
like something everyone can recognize from the last time Donald Trump was
president. Both China and the EU experienced how the US then made threats about
tariffs, and then agreements were made on e.g. purchase of American soy, and
thus a major trade war was avoided.
If you look at
Donald Trump's actions this time, the situation is somewhat different and much
more serious.
Partly there
is Trump's domestic political motivation for wanting to introduce customs
duties on goods from e.g. EU and China.
Trump wants to
use tariffs to raise more money for the US treasury. According to Trump, the
increased customs revenue must be used to lower taxes in the United States. If
you take that statement seriously, then Trump needs the revenue from higher
tariffs.
The decisive
difference from Trump's first presidency and now, however, is another one.
In 2025,
Donald Trump and the people around him have identified far more and far more
serious areas where they require the EU to change if Europe is to avoid being
hit by US tariffs.
And if you
just take a look at just some of the demands the US has started to make to the
EU, the conclusion is crystal clear.
There is
really no possibility for the EU to negotiate with Donald Trump and the US on
all the things that the Americans are unhappy with. The things the US demands,
neither can nor will the EU negotiate.
This means
that there are really only two options for how the growing conflict between the
EU and the US ends.
There is
really no possibility for the EU to negotiate with Donald Trump and the US on
all the things that the Americans are unhappy with.
Either the
Americans withdraw their many statements and complaints - or they end up in a
trade war with Europe. And of course a trade war that the Europeans cannot
allow the US to win.
If you look at
the list of US announcements and demands for Europe, you understand how big a
risk there is of a trade war between the EU and the US. Although Trump has only
been in power for four weeks, there have already been a number of American
announcements and threats.
The latest
shot in the arm over US threats to Europe was on Thursday, when Donald Trump
announced upcoming retaliatory tariffs.
It is a tariff
that the US is threatening because there are areas where the US believes that
Europe does not treat American companies properly. There are e.g. higher
tariffs on US cars when they are to be exported to the EU than there are for
European cars when they are sold to the US. (70 percent of all goods sold to
the EU are not subject to customs duties).
But what is
striking is that the American threats are about much more than just tariffs.
If you listen
to Trump's future trade minister, Howard Lutnick, there are a large number of
EU rules which, in his view, are discriminatory against American companies, and
which therefore also entitle the US to impose tariffs on goods from Europe.
It is e.g. the
fact that VAT is charged in the EU. These are some of the requirements set in
Europe for products – it can, for example, be rules for food safety, bans on
the use of hormones in food and other requirements to protect European
consumers.
Lutnick has
also seen anger at EU rules, which force companies in Europe to report their
efforts in areas such as climate and environment, social conditions and
corporate behavior (so-called ESG rules). At a hearing in the US Congress,
Lutnick, for example, threatened that if the EU forces US companies to follow
EU rules, the US will hit back with tariffs.
If you turn
the picture around, you can easily understand why announcements like the one
from the future trade minister leave no room for any kind of negotiation
between the EU and the US on such a demand.
How would the
US react if it was the EU Commission that announced that if the US intended to
enforce rules - adopted by the US Congress - against European companies
operating in the US, then the EU would punish the US with tariffs?
The American
answer would be unequivocal: Congress passes the legislation that applies in
the USA - and that legislation applies to all companies - including
European-owned companies in the USA.
There is no
room for negotiation in that case. Either the US withdraws its threat or there
will be a tariff war.
The same
applies to the entire tech area.
At the moment,
the EU's tech commissioner, Henna Virkkunen, is investigating whether companies
such as X, Meta and Amazon comply with the EU's rules in the tech area. The
answer to those investigations will most likely end with the EU Commission
assessing that there are areas where American tech companies do not follow EU
legislation. And the punishment for that kind of thing is clear. These are
massive fines.
While
Margrethe Vestager was competition commissioner in the EU, Google has e.g.
experienced being fined several times, the largest of which was more than DKK
30 billion ( 4 billion € ).
The USA has
threatened that if the EU punishes American tech companies – e.g. Trump's
friends Musk, Zuckerberg and Bezos, who all attended Trump's presidential
inauguration, will then hit back with tariffs.
But the tech
area is another area where there is no room for any negotiation.
There are EU
rules which regulate how tech companies must behave in Europe. If a company
breaks the rules, the penalty is fines. There is nothing to negotiate. The law
is the same for all companies in Europe. That's how it is in a state of law.
The EU cannot exempt American companies from European regulations.
The list of US
demands on Europe that are effectively non-negotiable is longer. But the point
is the same in each and every case. Either the US withdraws its threats - or
the trade war will come.
The EU is already ignoring Trump
The EU
Commission provided the ultimate proof that the EU is deliberately ignoring all
American threats earlier this week.
On Wednesday,
the European Commission presented the annual work program for 2025.
It might not
sound like the most fascinating document to throw yourself into. But a quick
glance at the work program shows how the EU really only has two options. Either
the EU can ignore Trump and the many announcements coming from the Trump
administration.
Or the EU
countries will simply have to decide to put significant parts of the EU's
legislative machinery on hold for the coming years – to accommodate the Trump
administration. And that option is obviously impossible and unacceptable for
the EU member states and the European Parliament.
A quick
perusal of the work program shows that during 2025 the Commission will present
45 new initiatives – among other things in areas such as artificial
intelligence, green transition, medicine, space policy, research and regulation
of the financial sector.
In addition to
the 45 new initiatives that the Commission will present during 2025, there are
currently a further 123 different legislative initiatives on their way through
the entire EU machine, where this sort of thing is negotiated between ministers
from EU member states and the members of the European Parliament.
If you have
first read through the Commission's work programme, the conclusion is crystal
clear.
Europe is not
going to stop the European regulatory machine waiting to find out which parts
of European regulation Donald Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and
other players in the Trump administration don't like.
The EU
Commission does not want any conflict with the United States. But if the US
takes its threats seriously, the EU will react "immediately and
decisively".
The European
legislative machine will continue its work - and if American companies want to
be present in Europe, then they - like European, Chinese and other companies -
must follow the rules that apply in Europe.
The message
from the EU is simple. As was also apparent from a statement issued by the EU
Commission on Friday:
The EU
Commission does not want any conflict with the United States. But if the US is
serious about its threats, then the EU will react "immediately and
decisively", because "the EU will always protect European companies,
workers and consumers against unjustified customs measures," as the EU Commission writes.
As EU
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed it at the security
conference in Munich on Friday – directly addressed to the US:
- If there are
unjustified tariffs directed at the EU, then there will also be a response from
the EU.
- The EU will
intervene with countermeasures.
There were
high hopes for the strategy of hope. But now that the strategy is dead, the
next phase awaits. It's either confrontation or American retreat.
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https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/udland/eu/europas-trump-strategi-var-haab-nu-er-haabet-doedt
Ole
Ryborg
15 02
2025
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